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Guess we'll have to wait for the Enquirer.
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It's a good question, and it's a complicated marriage. The question I would ask in reply is, "Has this been a marriage of convenience or convergence?" That is to say, did this coalition form because there's significant overlap between Team Values and Team Taxcut? Or did the coalition form because each of these two sides, with little in common, used the other to achieve its goals?
I don't know the answer to that question. What I do know is that if Frum's "Reader A" and, say, Andrew Sullivan are any indication, Team Taxcut has started to treat this as an open marriage.
And that doesn't bode well for McCain. You can see evidence of this in the fact that the GOP "base" that was "electrified" by the choice of Sarah Palin for VP consisted largely of Team Values. Team Taxcut? Not so much.
]]>Last night, Frum highlighted an e-mail from an independent that bodes poorly for the McCain-Palin ticket:
I started the cycle with the idea that if I could at all find a palatable Democrat, I’d vote for him. (Not her, because not a fan of Hillary). I also hoped that the Republicans would nominate McCain because he had an image that was distinct from the Republican party that I felt duty-bound to reject. … What I want to report to you, though, is the deep disappointment I’ve had in McCain. I had thought that this was going to be the happy year where either outcome was pretty good. I no longer feel that way. ... Not only was this choice [of Sarah Palin] irresponsible, I suspect it is also politically tone deaf. Obama’s campaign has been premised on an appeal to voters exactly like me – voters who want a politics that does not so obviously delight in wallowing in the mud. If there are a lot of Independents like me, Palin is a disaster. She’s just performed what it is that is driving us from the Republicans. She’s running against hope and the notion that we need civility in our political life. She’s running against the notion that we ought to hold our fellow Americans in respect whether they come from small towns or big towns.]]>
We will see how this plays out. Pro-life though I am; appalled by the social liberalism of the Democrats as I am; I really, really, really don’t want to live in an America that is capable of preferring that kind of ugly divisiveness to a genuine engagement with the serious issues that confront us all. This is not the time for spitball. It is the time for serious leadership. ... I want to come home to the Republicans. Right now I expect that it’ll be a good long while before that’s possible.
“I was completely underwhelmed. She was a Republican novelty act with a sophomoric script. It was not even a speech I would expect for a someone running for the local PTA, much less for vice president.”]]>
-- George Lentz, 66, Southfield independent
“Who is Sarah Palin? I'm sorry but I still don't know anymore about this young lady tonight than I did last night ... The way it looks to me, she's the Republican vice presidential nominee for one reason: because Hillary wasn't selected.”
-- Mike Kosh, 38, West Bloomfield independent
"Sarah Palin is a self-described ‘pitbull with lipstick.’ She spent little time helping Americans learn who she is. She is a cool, poised speaker, but her speech contained few statements about policy or the party platform. … I am not convinced that Palin's experience as a mayor or governor in Alaska meet the qualifications to be vice president much less one stroke or heart attack away from being commander in chief.”
-- Ilene Beninson, 52, Berkley independent
“Nothing worked for me. I found her barrage of snide remarksand distortions to be a major turn off. She is not a class act. The most important point she made is that she will be an effective attack dog.”
-- Jan Wheelock, 58, Royal Oak independent
“Sarah got as much applause as Hillary did, and had a friendly, appealing appearance. Her delivery style reminded me of a high school valedictorian who also might have been a cheerleader. I thought she would appear more professional, more stateswomanly. She's no match for Joe Biden.”
-- Joellen Gilchrist, 64, Beverly Hills independent
The tone of the coverage about her has changed overnight since her speech - even on the BBC this morning, I'd say there's about 90% less skepticism about her candidacy. And as for any illusions about Palin dropping out, I'd say you can kiss them goodbye. She's not going anywhere. Most of the lefty coverage focuses on the GOP giving up on issues altogether and turning this into 2004 again. It may work, and it may not, but barring some kind of smoking gun evidence that she committed a crime or had an abortion, McCain is going to stick with her. And why shouldn't he? She might be his most formidable weapon. McCain's threshold for VP has changed from "ready to be President on day one" to "ready to be attack dog on day one." Maybe he's a more astute evaluator of political talent than anybody gave him credit for.
They've basically dared the media to bring it on and try to find something disqualifying about her. And they've clearly made the calculation that nothing that's emerged thus far is disqualifying, at least to the extent that they'd be willing to take the hit of her withdrawal. I doubt anything disqualifying will emerge.
We're going to be seeing a lot of what we saw last night over the next 2 months. "Community organizer" is the new black. They'll run against Obama as if he's a lightweight, and they'll run against Bush as if he were a Democrat for the last 8 years. And make no mistake about it: Palin is precisely the right candidate to help him run that race.
I'll reiterate the Tracey Flick thing - I couldn't stop thinking about it throughout her entire speech. She's fueled by ambition, she's Machiavellian - she even has the same accent and verbal/facial tic.
Even if the Republicans don't win this election, Democrats have much to fear from Mrs. Palin in the future.
]]>I think that, barring another Palin-related game changer, those 1-2 points are likely to stick. McCain's top line is all over the place in these polls - CBS has it at 40, and Rasmussen has it at 48 (with Obama at 49). This is just a guess, but look for Obama's lead to be about 1-2 points higher throughout September than it was in August.
]]>The national momentum of these conventions and the national polls is critical to who wins and who loses. We don’t live in isolated media markets, but in an increasingly connected and interactive national community, and presidential campaigns are largely driven by the earned media, with paid ads playing only a secondary role. While Election Night could come down to few thousand voters in a key swing state, the voters in that state will have been equally affected by what goes on nationally as by what happened in their state and in their state’s campaign. That’s why national momentum and national polls count, and Obama has them now.
I'm tired of hearing some people wax about how national polls don't matter. They do.
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My current feeling is that I'm not so sure a 65-year-old white guy with 36 years in the Senate is the guy you want to reinforce your message of "Change you can believe in." And if that's no longer the Obama-Biden campaign's message, what is?
Attack dogs are fine and good, but a running mate can't attack alone. I believe they have to fit in to the greater context of the campaign, and I, at this point, don't see how he does.
]]>Why? Nate Silver says it best.
Just wanted to go on the record before he sends out his text to the masses.
]]>LAS CRUCES, N.M. — John McCain stated unequivocally in an interview with Politico on Wednesday that he would not pledge to serve only a single four-year term, rejecting a suggestion that some allies believe would allay questions about his age and underscore his nonpartisan message of putting country first.]]>
“No,” McCain said flatly, “I’m not considering it.”