Maybe Mark Penn's not such a complete idiot after all

Mark Penn is out with a "The GOP better have a good convention, or they're in deep trouble" piece today. It contains this very intelligent analysis:

The national momentum of these conventions and the national polls is critical to who wins and who loses. We don’t live in isolated media markets, but in an increasingly connected and interactive national community, and presidential campaigns are largely driven by the earned media, with paid ads playing only a secondary role. While Election Night could come down to few thousand voters in a key swing state, the voters in that state will have been equally affected by what goes on nationally as by what happened in their state and in their state’s campaign. That’s why national momentum and national polls count, and Obama has them now.

I'm tired of hearing some people wax about how national polls don't matter. They do.