McCain leads in Reuters/Zogby monthly

The question: Have the winds started blowing permanently in McCain's favor until the election?

The answer: No, it won't go unchanged until November. But what I find really shocking is the complete air of confidence coming from the Obama camp - they are not punching back in any coordinated fashion. Further complicating the matter is the fact that, since the conventions are back-to-back, it's likely that polling after the GOP convention will reflect a modest but real bounce for McCain.

The real question about this Reuters poll is - is it an outlier? Obama has consistently polled between 45-47% in the vast majority of polls. Even the Battleground poll that came out today, showing McCain with a 1-point lead, puts Obama at 46%. If other polls start to show him at 41%, that means that his own support is ebbing, rather than McCain winning short-term battles for the preference of wavering undecideds. And if that turns out to be the case, Mr. Obama is in serious, serious trouble. We can go into election day with Obama at 46-47% and hoping undecideds break his way - that's a plausible scenario. We cannot go into election day with Obama polling at 41% and have any reasonable hope he'll win.