August 2008 Archives
I've not commented on the Biden choice because, frankly, I'm not sure yet what I think. I'm waiting for his speech tonight.
My current feeling is that I'm not so sure a 65-year-old white guy with 36 years in the Senate is the guy you want to reinforce your message of "Change you can believe in." And if that's no longer the Obama-Biden campaign's message, what is?
Attack dogs are fine and good, but a running mate can't attack alone. I believe they have to fit in to the greater context of the campaign, and I, at this point, don't see how he does.
Hillary's speech last night was convincing, in that it gave disaffected HRC supporters a compelling, point-by-point list of reasons why they ought to be voting for Obama. "Were you in this campaign just for me?" she asked of her supporters, the audience for the speech. And now we should safely be able to say that any Hillary supporter planning to pull the lever for McCain is deluded (or simply won't vote for the black guy).
Somewhere around March 4th of this year, I started to feel a visceral hatred for all things Clinton. Hillary overstayed her welcome during the primary campaign, there is no question. But here we are, in the waning hours before Obama's veep choice, and deep inside, I'm rooting for him to pick Hillary.
Why? Nate Silver says it best.
Just wanted to go on the record before he sends out his text to the masses.
From Politico
LAS CRUCES, N.M. — John McCain stated unequivocally in an interview with Politico on Wednesday that he would not pledge to serve only a single four-year term, rejecting a suggestion that some allies believe would allay questions about his age and underscore his nonpartisan message of putting country first.
“No,” McCain said flatly, “I’m not considering it.”
The question: Have the winds started blowing permanently in McCain's favor until the election?
The answer: No, it won't go unchanged until November. But what I find really shocking is the complete air of confidence coming from the Obama camp - they are not punching back in any coordinated fashion. Further complicating the matter is the fact that, since the conventions are back-to-back, it's likely that polling after the GOP convention will reflect a modest but real bounce for McCain.
The real question about this Reuters poll is - is it an outlier? Obama has consistently polled between 45-47% in the vast majority of polls. Even the Battleground poll that came out today, showing McCain with a 1-point lead, puts Obama at 46%. If other polls start to show him at 41%, that means that his own support is ebbing, rather than McCain winning short-term battles for the preference of wavering undecideds. And if that turns out to be the case, Mr. Obama is in serious, serious trouble. We can go into election day with Obama at 46-47% and hoping undecideds break his way - that's a plausible scenario. We cannot go into election day with Obama polling at 41% and have any reasonable hope he'll win.
Saddleback was only a mistake if Obama's goal was to "win". If his goal was to scrape somewhere between 1-5% off the top of the evangelical vote, he may well have succeeded. Any votes he picked up from Saddleback were like finding a $100 bill lying in the street - you never expected to have the money, you wouldn't get it any other way, but it's sure nice to have found it.
